A Critical Review of Bioplastics Growth: Re-evaluating Forecasts

Despite strong bioplastic growth, 2025 data reveal that earlier optimistic forecasts overstated expectations, reflecting a more complex market reality.

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Caption: A critical look at the bioplastics market reveals a more complex and nuanced reality for 2025.

The conversation around sustainable polymers and the shift to a circular economy has made bioplastics a key material for the future. Made from renewable sources like corn starch, sugarcane, or lignocellulosic biomass, these polymers promise a lower carbon footprint than petroleum-based plastics. Many also offer end-of-life options such as industrial composting.

You can also read: High-Flying Figures Track Growth of Bioplastics and Other Key Materials.

The 2023 Forecast: An Ambitious Projection

In mid-2023, Plastics Engineering highlighted an especially optimistic forecast from Markets and Markets Inc. The firm projected a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7% for the bioplastics and biopolymers market between 2020 and 2025. According to the forecast, the market would reach a total value of $27.9 billion by 2025. This bold outlook portrayed an industry on the brink of rapid expansion, ready to challenge the market dominance of conventional polymers.

Several factors drove this optimistic projection. Global efforts to reduce plastic waste and microplastic pollution were gaining momentum, while legislation targeting single-use plastics was becoming more aggressive. In this context, bioplastics, such as PLA, PHA, and starch-based blends, emerged as a leading technological response. These materials offered the potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions across their life cycles and, in the case of certified compostable polymers, to redirect organic waste away from landfills.

2025 Market Actuality

A critical look at the bioplastics market reveals a more complex and nuanced reality for 2025. Although the market has shown substantial growth, the 2025 data show that earlier, more optimistic forecasts fell short.

A comprehensive review of recent market analysis from various research firms shows broad agreement that the 2025 market size fell short of the $27.9 billion projection. For example, Precedence Research valued the global bioplastics market at $23.81 billion in 2025. Other sources offered even more conservative figures: The Business Research Company estimated $12.79 billion, while Custom Market Insights reported $16.7 billion.

While CAGR still points to a growing sector, most firms have lowered their estimates from the original 21.7% forecast. Current figures for the 2020–2025 period now range between 18% and 20%. Interestingly, a recent Markets and Markets report projects a strong 24.2% CAGR for the 2024–2029 period, suggesting renewed momentum ahead. In terms of applications, experts expect packaging, both flexible and rigid, to remain the dominant application, collectively representing the largest share of the market.

The data shows that the bioplastics sector is growing. However, early forecasts may have overlooked the major technical and economic challenges involved in replacing well-established, low-cost plastics like PET, PE, and PP.

Analyzing Discrepancy

Several factors explain the gap between the forecast and actual market results. A key challenge is the production cost competitiveness of bioplastics. Even with process improvements, the costs of polymerization and compounding remain higher than those of petroleum-based plastics. This price difference creates a significant barrier, especially for high-volume, cost-sensitive applications.

Technical performance is still a major challenge for bioplastics. Researchers and engineers have made good progress, but problems remain with heat resistance, moisture and oxygen barriers, and fitting into current manufacturing processes. In many uses, bioplastics do not perform as well as traditional plastics. This means more research and development are needed.

End-of-life management adds another layer of complexity for bioplastics. Building a circular economy depends on having reliable waste management systems, especially industrial composting and, increasingly, chemical recycling. Limited access to these facilities, along with a lack of user education on proper disposal, has hindered bioplastics from fully delivering their environmental benefits.

A Technically Driven, Sustainable Future

Despite the recalibration of growth expectations, the future of the bioplastics industry remains promising. The fundamental market drivers are not only intact but are gaining momentum. Regulatory frameworks, such as the EU’s Single-Use Plastics Directive, and industry standards for compostability, like ASTM D6400 and EN 13432, are creating a more favorable landscape for the adoption of bioplastics.

Updated market forecasts reflect a continued growth trajectory. Many projects expect the market to exceed $100 billion by the early 2030s, with CAGRs in the high teens and twenties. This growth relies on ongoing innovation in biopolymer science. Researchers actively develop novel biopolymers and bio-based composites with improved mechanical, thermal, and barrier properties. There is also a strong focus on diversifying feedstocks, shifting toward second and third generation sources such as lignocellulosic biomass, algae, and waste streams. These efforts will further enhance the sustainability of bioplastics.